Trump Loses To Harris - Mail-In Ballots Do It

If the election were today, Harris 303, Trump 235. Harris has the better hand because she has the mail-in ballot mills in swing states.

If the election were held today, August 2024, Trump would lose to Harris easily.

Listening to the Trump Campaign guys on podcasts, it appears they believe they are running a political campaign, against a Leftist woman - and if they get the word out she is a Commie and her VP is more Commie, who chickened out of Afghanistan, they win.

That is the delusional thinking about to lose the most important election in modern American history - and you get a ringside seat to watch it.

These are the thinkers in Republican campaigns - from the detritus of previous senate and congressional campaigns - people who did not go to top schools, have not done great things, have little personal accomplishment - and their life’s light is a reflection of the Sun they serve.

For decades these politicos, who took poli-sci in college, belonged to the band in high school, knew who Nixon’s first VP was - grew into the operational mechanics of national Republican campaigns.

They are mechanics - not thinkers.

You however, are a thinker so ride with us here a bit.

What’s different is the 2024 presidential and major senate races - are not political battles - they are ideological and the rules are fundamentally different. So is the battlefield, the tactics, the strategies.

To be more precise - they are ideological for the Left.

Trump’s guys don’t get it. Harris’s do. That’s why we see 303 for Harris and 235 for DJ.

We aren’t asking you to believe us now.

We want you to review this post in early October - and we are going to send you the link to do so.

By early October Harris will lead in every swing state - by a point or two - maybe even 1 point behind. Does not matter - the election will not be decided by who gets the most votes - rather who gets the most ballots.

Trump has a useless strategy to hire 100,000 poll watchers to insure mail-in ballots, from NGO ballot mills - be properly counted.

The grifter who sold him that strategy is being paid to train these useless resources. We know who she is and we are going to maker infamous.

Harris has literally hundreds of NGOs, in every state, (wanna see ‘em?) many have been registering illegal aliens and migrants - there’s a difference - at ballot collection points. Those accumulate to about 500,000 ballots in each swing state except PA - which is closer to 1.4 million.

The politicos - are publicly playing the 1980s campaign measurement game:

• Polling people in swing states - post the poll - a snapshot of fleeting reality.

• Writers like Salena Zito driving around dingy western Pennsylvania towns asking people who should have moved out when the jobs left, what they think of Harris.

• Trumpers counting lawn signs - noting how few for Harris.

• Politico and Axios publishing pieces about how Harris may just pull it out.

• Trumpers publishing crowd size info - Harris faking her stats.

• Victor Davis Hanson articles about how Trump is like a Greek thing.

• The Atlantic doing regular puff pieces on why Commie backgrounds are cooler than you thought.

• Harris avoiding mistakes - like the ones when she opens her unscripted mouth - thus nothing extemp.

• Fox news acting like they like Trump - because he may win and they want that interview. Laura Ingraham.

Everything from the pros will look, feel and smell the same as in every campaign. They are the ones who miss the real action below the surface.

They, like Trump and his reflecting Moons, still think they are in a traditional political campaign.

Republicans are all about the dough. Leftists are about the power and ideology.

Under great pressure, ideology always wins over money - thus Lenin, Hitler, Pol Pot, Mao - untold African leaders - always calling their movement the People’s Democratic Whatever.

Come to think of it, money almost never wins - or when it does victory is short lived.

The key difference between the motive force of ideology versus money is that the ideology one never stops - that’s why in power or out of power in the U.S. the Left always moves its agenda forward.

In power or out of power, Republicans always get smoked - actually - they don’t even get beat so much as they just plain quit.

No major Republican political concept has been enacted into law since Calvin Coolidge. All major societal changes come from the Left - welfare state, immigration, open borders, nationalized medical care - you get it. Ideology wins.

Back to DJ.

Trump is a very smart guy. My dad met him a couple of times in New York and told me to never bet against Trump.

I am not betting against DJ. I believe, if anyone can pull this one out - he’s the guy.

I continue to believe Trump is an historic personage who will - 100 years from now - be remembered for his courage, insight into government (Deep State stuff) and as a transformational figure.

So I am not betting against DJ.

However, we all have our weaknesses.

Ours, is we cannot stop writing Substack articles - plus many others.

While we are kind to animals we cancel subscribers - even paid ones - who ask us how we clean voter rolls!

We don’t clean those f#$%ing voter rolls - we stop mail-in ballots going to them! Do not ask us how we clean them or you are OUT!

Trump is absolutely blind - in a Greek tragedy kind of way - appointing stupid people around him. And he does have stupid people around him who are going to get him smoked by Kamala!

He’s figuring that out right now as the decision to take out Joe Biden - in June rather than September will go down as the most consequential blunder in modern American politics.

Come September, when Kamala is ahead or too close for comfort in the swing states - Trump will figure out this is not a traditional 1980s campaign - and it will be way too late to change course.

We don’t do political commentary because we have no data in that area - but we do observe and when we see there is not a “wave” of enthusiasm for the Republican brand - reflected in every senate race - we conclude the race goes Blue not Red.

Let’s look, together, at some of the Senate races:

In West Virginia, the Republicans win easily. In Montana it looks good, but not good enough - Tester may pull it out. Nobody has ever reconciled Montana voter rolls so 2% for the Republican guy is probably not enough.

Every other competitive Senate race is over.

Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio - there is no way those anodyne, listless GOP candidates have a prayer unless their opponent gets caught in a child porn sting. That may not be enough.

The GOP recruits these candidates, whose only qualification to office is inherited dough or hitting one big deal in their otherwise bland life - and they can finance their own campaign.

They have zero appeal to the people - they are U.S. Senate Campaign Committee cutout characters.

We predict here and now they are toast.

Kari Lake, a favorite in our house, will likely lose as well - not because she is a crappy candidate like the midwestern guys - but because Arizona is so corrupt.

Kari Lake won the 2022 governor race - we can prove it with the data we have - she got royally screwed. Like Trump, never bet against her - she will find a way, just not in 2024.

Kari Lake was too close to Trump and caught the Trump Flu - surrounding herself with incompetents who will cause her to lose.

The Arizona GOP and their most prominent voter integrity org are stuck in the 1980s - so don’t expect much in Arizona.

We have first hand knowledge - we told them to cut the cards in 2022 and take voter roll snapshots in Maricopa - then check them during the election to make sure the government didn’t secretly add new voters.

They ignored that advice - the county added 22,000 new voters - days before the election - invisible to Lake - the Republicans lost - and Trump will likely lose Arizona in 2024 due to on-the-ground incompetence - and Leftist ballot mills.

The senate races are instructive. No Republican is breaking out against an incumbent. None. That is meaningful.

Back to those 303 electoral votes.

Our scientific methodology is to talk to the election integrity field teams.

They have been mired deep in the data for 38 months - literally day and night. In the history of U.S. politics, there has never been such an aggregation of talented, dedicated citizen groups who have dug into election data - in every swing state - for so long a time.

They are mostly volunteers, small groups. Some work with us others are on their own at kitchen tables and Zoom calls. They are pretty interconnected and their voice is close to unanimous - actually it is unanimous.

The in-the-trenches teams report there is no, like zero Trump ground game in the swing states.

The Trump Campaign boasts they have some sort of Captain Trump 47 thing going up in “200 offices” in the swing states. No doubt they do.

Here’s the difference - and it is the single most critical observation showing DJ is going to get smoked: The Trump Campaign and the RNC are NOT engaging the workers - they are promoting the grifters!

There’s a parallel here - in American Foreign Policy - stick with me.

The U.S. for the last century backed the guy, in every foreign country who was the oppressor type - not the man of the people type. Chiang vs Mao in China, Pav in Iran, Allende in Chile, Diem in Viet Nam (even when Ho Chi Min visited with the U.S. to get support before going to the Reds) - if you are over 50 you know the story.

The U.S. State Department and CIA always pick the wrong guy - the people toss them out and end up with the Commies - or Ayatollahs.

The analog is the Trump Campaign.

The Campaign hired about every DC-based grifter in Washington DC.

We know it first hand as their “voter integrity” lead is some hack lawyer whose LinkedIn profile shows he is a-DC based, not too successful lawyer who does political lawyer stuff.

For the teams in the foxholes for 38 months, guys like that just prove how out of touch the Trump Campaign truly is.

Literally hundreds, into the thousands of Twitter feeds include #JoshHelton because they want him to wake up to ballot mills - none of which are on K Street or M Street in Georgetown.

The Campaign is not working with the guys who did all the work for 38 months - it is working with the guys who show up at the party late, after someone else brought the beer.

We are asked daily, “why isn’t Trump embracing your ability to stop mail-in ballots to Walmarts and strip malls?”

Now you know why - because on his team are the politicos in the early paragraph who think they can “outrun” the mail-in ballots. Sort of like George Custer thought he could handle those pesky Sioux at the Little Big Horn.

Another analogy - Custer was shocked to find 5,000 or so over that hill - and it was too late to do anything about it.

The Trump Campaign will only recognize what 500,000 mail-in ballots mean - in each swing state - when their 100,000 poll watchers helplessly watch them go through the tabulators.

After the election, literally every swing state org will ask the Trump Campaign: “Why didn’t you stop those mail-in ballots from Walmarts and 7-11’s - in the hundred thousands BEFORE they went out?

Let’s do the math in one swing state - Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is won or lost by about 25,000 votes in statewide elections. In 2024, there will be about 3.5 million Wisconsin active voters. Let’s say 80% vote - a very optimistic number.

The Wisconsin team already identified about 450,000 mail-in ballots (that will be mailed when the time comes). 450,000 divided by 2.8 million is about 15% of the vote.

The Trump Campaign tells us they are registering people like mad. New registrants have a low vote propensity - but all 450,000 Leftist ballot mill ballots have a 100% propensity. The Leftists put them into the system!

The Trump Campaign tells us they are ballot harvesting. Ballot harvest all you want - you cannot outrun 15% of the ballots.

The Trump Campaign and the RNC tell us they have 100,000 kick ass, trained poll watchers. Great. So what does a poll watcher do to stop one of those 450,000 ballots once it’s in the system? What about the rest?

This is what happens when a campaign picks grifters, not the street fighters who have been doing the work for 38 months. The Campaign has no visibility to the ground.

In Wisconsin alone, the voter integrity guy the Campaign is paying has zero clue about what the fighters in the trenches are doing. He’s a joke and the teams there - who win elections - just ignore him.

Remember, the Left is ideology-driven. There is no sunlight between the national organization, the state organization, the precinct orgs, the NGOs like Catholic charities and Lutheran charities registering illegal aliens - to vote for Kam.

The Left does not hire grifters in DC who have never done anything in the voter integrity space - they have people from top to bottom - to the runner who picks up loose ballots for $40 a piece - all pulling in the same direction.

That’s the difference between an ideology-driven electioneering force and one doing it for the dough - and DJ is about to realize this when the polls turn.

Trump, like Custer is approaching his hill - the one where one’s view of reality changes instantly from its top. For Custer, when he rode up, he saw he was in for a long day. His last.

Around October 10th the hilltop will show the Trump Campaign how screwed they are. Trump will see it first, the campaign team will try to bullshit their way out of it, but Trump will get it. Early October.

Polls will show Harris in control of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Wisconsin - and Trump cannot lose ‘em all.

Trump will probably fire a bunch of people and stick some old hand in. Trump will sense he is in real trouble around mid September and likely act in early October.

After October 10th, it’s too late to adjust. The senate campaigns will be dead - that’s a given - but Trump’s position becomes unrecoverable.

Fortunately for DJ, we did not bet against him. We listened to my dad.

The national voter integrity orgs have left the field - they are out fundraising from dopey donors to clean voter rolls in 2025 - which they will again fail to do.

In each swing state, plus Colorado, teams are using Fractal quantum technology to compare property tax rolls with voter rolls - identify ballots that are set to be mailed to a restaurant, 7-11 or bank - where nobody lives - and stop them from getting into the system.

We just funded one of these - more coming on board.

Hopefully the rest of these states will be funded as well.

If so, when Trump rides to the top of that hill, he will see about 500,000 ballots in every swing state, 1.4 million in Pennsylvania - riding away.

ALERT**** The Fractal team is making some major announcements in the near future about our technology bringing an innovative solution to some key states. Stay tuned - share this FREE Substack with all your pals.

Jay led the team that built the eBay fraud engine, the underlying technology for the TSA No-Fly List and the fraud systems for State Farm, GEICO, USAA and other major insurers. 

Jay’s team was awarded 6 patents for revolutionary Similarity Search technology - finding fraud in complex data - invisible to all relational technology.

Jay can be contacted at his Substack:  Omega4America.Substack.com

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